The index of business activity expectations in Ukraine has worsened.

The index of business activity expectations, which the NBU calculates every month, decreased to 41.0 in January from 45.7 in December 2023. Given the growing pressure from production costs and logistical difficulties, industrial enterprises increasingly expressed pessimistic expectations, resulting in the index falling to 43.7. Respondents significantly worsened their volume estimates for manufactured products and new orders and predicted a further decrease in stocks of raw materials. Traders also predicted worsening economic results amid rising import prices due to the blockade at the western borders, high fuel prices, and a slowdown in demand: the index fell to 38.9 in January. Companies in the service sector strengthened their negative ratings, considering the decrease in demand due to increased tariffs and security risks: the index was 40.4. The most pessimistic estimates were given by construction enterprises, considering the intense hostilities, the shortage of qualified personnel, and the seasonal factor: the index was 31.9 (42.1 in December).


Ukraine War 24

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